Sunday, April 03, 2005

How Freedom Will Overcome Tyranny

Zimbabwe, China, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, Sudan are Fear States. Their tyrants oppress, imprison, torture, rape and kill their own people and threaten and blackmail Free States to keep them in business. Free nations must help these oppressed peoples free themselves by a sustained exercise in moral clarity.

Nathan Sharansky's book shows how to do this, based on this understanding of how Fear States work.

1. In Fear States a small group uses fear to maintain itself in power and take the bulk of resources.

2. They create fear through force, conditioning, censorship, propaganda, and external threat.

3. Fear States can seem healthy (China) but are always inherently inefficient and doomed to decline (USSR, Cuba, Zimbabwe, Sudan, Iran).

4. Fear States try to avoid decline by conquest (China, Nazi Germany, Iraq), or by threats that secure subsidies and/or technical support from Free States (Palestine, Iran, North Korea, China).

5. The people of Fear States are mostly Doublethinkers, who try to live their lives without talking or acting against the regime. Next come Supporters, part of the ruling elite - most Muslim terrorists come from this class. Finally, there are Resisters, whose numbers depend on how far the Fear State has declined. At first, all Resisters are killed, but as the system collapses this creates problems in getting subsidies from Free States, so Resisters are exiled or jailed - the USSR was like this after Stalin.

Democracies do not go to war unless directly threatened, so invariably try to "buy off" Fear States. Think Chamberlain at Munich, Kissinger's Détente, Israel and the EU funding Arafat, Clinton bribing North Korea not the build nukes, the US trading with China.

This approach assumes that resources provided to the Fear State will trickle down to the oppressed masses and lead to liberalization. Not unreasonable, because that's what would happen in a Free State.

Unfortunately, the ruling elite in Fear States always purloins aid, resources and technology for their own benefit. They use them to improve their means of oppression, and to threaten Free States so as to insure the continuing subsidy.

This is what's happening now with North Korea, Zimbabwe, China, Iran, Sudan and Cuba - Free States are helping them survive and enabling them to variously oppress their peoples and/or build mighty armies that threaten us. (Americans should know that Cuba is a popular European vacation destination, providing Castro with essential resources).

Most importantly, every time they help a Fear State, Free States lose legitimacy in the eyes of the oppressed in that state. Which is why Saudi Arabians and Palestinians hate the US.

Sounds grim, but the fix is easy. First, Free States should avoid war - most of the people killed will be oppressed and the elite will end up in France or somewhere similar. In some case such as Iraq, there may be no option but war. However, in such cases deadly force should be focused on the repressive elite, as the Coalition did.

More usually, the solution is quarantine and support for internal resistance.

Quarantine means exclusion from all subsidies, be they food aid (tough, but remember Oil for Palaces), World Bank loans, weapons, or slush funds (PLO). It means physical blockade, which of course requires that Free States maintain & deploy strong armed forces.

Support for internal resistance means a multiplicity of Free State governmental and non-governmental organizations promoting human rights of the populations of Fear States. It means linking small loosening of the quarantine with large reductions in internal repression. It means promoting routine communication with the oppressed, via satellite TV, radio and the Internet.

The hard part is to not intervene to help the oppressed. Fear States are expert propagandists & ensure that images of their victims starving and suffering are broadcast to Free States. Then they’ll take that aid for themselves and demand more. About 10 million Africans have died from this behavior over the past 25 years.

What I've described here is of course the Bush Doctrine. Which is a great start but we have to follow up.

1. The Mullahs must be starved of technology and money and we must shout each murder, rape or imprisonment from the rooftops. The Iraqis have shown their fellow Muslims what can be done, and we should be planning on helping Iraqis to support the peoples of Iran when they throw off their oppressors.

2. Zimbabwe must be cut off from its South African support, and the UK as the power that let this happen should help its people to take control when it collapses, as it soon will.

3. Iran must be attacked economically and quarantined of advanced technology.

4. China must be starved of weapons; the US should significantly reduce its imports and field a convincing defensive ring around Taiwan.

5. Sudan is so far decayed that we should consider military force.

6. North Korea is a threat created by the Fear State of China, and should be quarantined. It won’t become free until China collapses. Which it will, once it loses external subsidies.