Monday, June 13, 2005

The Anglosphere Century?

Mark Steyn opines that China is a paper tiger and the 21st Century will be dominated by an Anglosphere powered by the US, Australia and India. I agree.

The assumption that this will be the "Asian century" is so universal that Jacques Chirac now promotes himself as Greece to Beijing's Rome, and the marginally less deranged of The Guardian's many Euro-fantasists excuse the EU's sclerosis on the grounds that no one could possibly compete with the unstoppable rise of a Chinese behemoth that by mid-century will have squashed America like the cockroach she is.

But China is a Fear State, and such states never prosper because they lock up their citizens' talents.

Mao, though he gets a better press than Hitler and Stalin, was the biggest mass murderer of all time, with a body count ten times' higher than the Nazis.

So the Chinese economy is essentially parasitic:

China manufactures the products for some of the biggest brands in the world, but it's also the biggest thief of copyrights and patents of those same brands.

China hasn't invented or discovered anything of significance in half a millennium, but the careless assumption that intellectual property is something to be stolen rather than protected shows why.

Steyn's bet is on India:

India, by contrast, with much less ballyhoo, is advancing faster than China toward a fully-developed economy - one that creates its own ideas.

Right - a large proportion of the really gifted developers I've known in my career have been Indian.

The 21st century will be an Anglosphere century, with America, India and Australia leading the way. Anti-Americans betting on Beijing will find the China shop is in the end mostly a lot of bull.

Mrs G's family comes from India - Franco/Brits, although I suspect some Indian ancestry too. We plan to visit there next year to trace her family and check out the business potential.