Thursday, June 02, 2005

EU War Clouds

The European "elite" would be wise to give up on its plans for an integrated Europe, and fall back on a customs union. If they press ahead, they'll likely get themselves a Civil War.

The referenda in France and Holland show that both the EU and Europe's national governments are unrepresentative of the people of Europe. One Dutch anti-constitution campaigner commented:

"If you realize that two thirds of parliament supported the constitution and two out of three people are against, it means a lot is wrong in the country".

Since only only 9 of the EU's 25 members are asking their citizens what they think about the constitution & the rest are waving it through, that's a big problem..

Here are the counties which have or will be voting on the constitution, and my current expected outcomes.

Spain: Yes ( Spain is a huge net beneficiary of EU funds, not surprising)
France: No
The Netherlands: No
Luxembourg: (Yes - I expect their 3 voters will OK it to keep the tax breaks)
Denmark: (Probably No)
Ireland: (probably Yes, another huge beneficiary)
Portugal: (Yes, although their pols are talking about taking the decision themselves)
UK: (No way)
Czech Republic: (Probably No - having escaped one set of control-freak lefties, they don't want another)
Poland: (Could go either way - Poland is a big beneficiary, on the other hand it too values its freedoms).

If this is right, of the 10 nations consulting their citizens, half will say No. Extrapolating that to the 15 nations which haven't consulted their citizens is another 7 nations that would have voted No, on the Dutch model. Giving a grand total of 12 of the 25 against.

It was this level of division that triggered the Brit Civil War, The US Revolution and the US Civil War. Except this time with nukes - an unthinkable risk.