Sunday, July 10, 2005

Post-Attack Assessment: Why?

Al Queda is a rational monster, and so will continue its attacks on Coalition capital cities in the hope that an appeasing Democrat will cede them control of Islam in 2009.

As well as mourning the dead and helping the survivors, Brits have to look to the future. There are 5 questions:

1. Why did they do it?
2. How did they do it?
3. When will they next attack?
4. How can citizens defend themselves?
5. How can the nation best defend itself?

I'll cover the Why? in this post and the others in subsequent posts.

First a sense of proportion. More Brits died on 9/11 than on 7/7. About the same number of civilians are murdered every week in Iraq and evey 6 months in Israel. The IRA has murdered 1100 Brit civilians and police in the past 30 years.

In fact, to understand the Islamic terrorists, you just need to look at the IRA. The IRA is a Marxist organization that wants to force the Brits out of Northern Ireland (part of the United Kingdom) so that they control it. After killing thousands, they have in some measure succeeded. Most of the Brit army has been withdrawn and the police restructured to meet IRA preferences. The IRA controls the Catholic community, which they murder at will, they retain their weapons, the leaders are classic Fear State despots, grown wealthy on extortion.

And they have secured political legitimacy, both in the UK and the US. Until this year, IRA leaders sat with Clinton and subsequently George Bush at St Patrick Day parades - their exclusion this year was for a particularly gruesome murder, but they'll be back. The only good news is that the Northern Irish majority hates the IRA and some day will finish them.

Al Queda has similar geo-political goals - it wants to rule Islam. Which means driving the Coalition out of Iraq. Whereas the IRA was financed first from Libya and then the US, Al Queda is financed from Saudi Arabia, Syrai and Iran. It's in the same position as the IRA - unable to achieve its goals in combat or by local murders and mayhem. And so, like the IRA, it has moved to attacking the home cities of the Coalition.

So we should expect continuing attacks on Brit civilians and its economy - primarily the City of London, the world's second largest financial center. I walked through the City just after the second big IRA attack in 1993, which caused $2 billion of physical damage. The place was devastated. Tens of thousands of windows broken, papers blown out and filling the streets, offices deserted. Recovery took months, and the loss of business will have easily exceeded the physical damage.

So Al Queda, although depraved, is not stupid. If it continues this campaign through 2009, its entirely possible that the US will elect a Democrat who is as willing to appease them as Clinton did the IRA.

The Brit people, having been burned once, will stay the course. Whether the US does is up to its citizens.