Wednesday, July 27, 2005

A Postscript On Living With Nuclear War

Giles correctly points out that my post didn't adequately explain what's now changed to make nuclear war likely. The big change is that the US has given up on nuclear proliferation & there's nobody else to do the job.

In the last 2 months the US administration has reversed all its previous positions on proliferation.

1. Granting nuclear technology to India

See post. This eliminates the US bully pulpit.

2. Dropping its refusal to negotiate one-on-one with North Korea

BEIJING: The United States and communist North Korea held a rare one-on-one meeting Monday, with the American side stressing it was time for “real progress” to be made in reversing the North’s drive for nuclear weapons.

By rewarding NoKo for having nukes, it's providing them incentives to keep them.

3. Offering Iran WTO membership in return for a "promise" not to build nukes

After blocking Iran's bid 21 times, the US agreed to allow the WTO to begin entry talks with Iran.

This is the useless "carrot" policy originated by Clinton.

I fear that this administration has decided that it has enough to do domestically and in Iraq & has decided to kick nuke proliferation into the long grass, leaving its successor to deal with it. But if the successor is Democrat, it will be isolationist & we know what happened last time the US went isolationist.

So we face a world of nuclear armed dictatorships with no cop to keep them in line.