Tuesday, September 13, 2005

Body Counting

The MSM is trying to make its "10,000 deaths" stick by talking up clusters of deaths. Some conservative bloggers worry that the prediction will come true. It won't.

Captains Quarters reports the WaPo:

45 Bodies Found In La. Hospital

NEW ORLEANS, Sept. 12 -- The bodies of 45 patients left in a hasty evacuation were recovered from a New Orleans hospital, officials said Monday, as the city braced for the scenes left by the receding waters.

The city braced for more grim discoveries as the receding waters allowed search parties to reach isolated buildings. But the death toll -- 279 for Louisiana -- was still far below the initial prediction of the city's mayor that 10,000 perished.

It's not surprising bodies were left behind - all hospitals have morgues and recovering bodies comes second to saving the living.

CQ is still concerned though:

That prediction by Mayor Ray Nagin may yet still come to pass as more of the city emerges from the floodwaters.

I can reassure CQ that there's no chance of that happening - based on the latest reports I'm predicting that deaths across all states will be less than half the worst case 1,500 I estimated last week.

Hence CQ's analysis is spot-on.

The Exempt Media should ask themselves whether the estimate of 10,000 casualties had any other basis in fact. If so, they need to explain what else prompted them to report that as a reliable range. If not, then they need to rethink using reports from overwhelmed local politicians who used such estimates to shove attention off of their own performances.