Monday, November 14, 2005

Al Queda Is Finished In Iraq

The Jordan bombing shows that al Queda in Iraq is now incompetent and without allies in the Sunni community. Incompetence and self destruction are features of defeated armies, so the war is won and it just remains to nail Zarqawi.

Mao observed that guerrillas must swim in a civilian sea - once exposed, they're easily defeated. In Iraq, parts of the Sunni population provided that sea for al Queda, but by killing Sunnis in Jordan it's stranded itself.

For brevity, I've pulled the essential facts from here and here.

1. Jordan is 95% Sunni Muslim.

2. Four killers entered Jordan from Iraq on November 5th and rented an apartment in Amman.

3. Each brought with them an explosive/shrapnel suicide bomb designed to maximize death and mutilation.

4. The killers spent 4 days reconnoitering the 3 hotels they'd targeted then on the evening of November 9th they attacked - one man took one hotel each and the husband and wife team the third.

5. One of the killers (Days Inn) tried to detonate in a restaurant and failed. He was chased out of the hotel by security, finally detonating outside.

6. The husband and wife team targeted a wedding of a couple from Jordan and Palestine, dressing smartly to ensure they could join the party. The husband successfully detonated, killing many of the party including the fathers of bride and groom.

7. The woman's detonator failed, and she fled back to the apartment.

8. al Queda in Iraq then boasted of the killings without knowing if all bombers had detonated, and said that two of the bombers were husband and wife.

9. The Jordanian police were very efficient. They knew that there had not been a woman bomber (bomber's heads are blown off in a characteristic way) and they tracked down the woman in the apartment.

10. Now she's singing.

This tells us the following about al Queda in Iraq:
It has has turned on the Sunnis.
Its weapons are shoddy, so they don't have competent armorers left.
It's killers are amateur and easily panicked.
It doesn't have people to observe its bombing attempts (even the IRA managed that).
It has no backup in Jordan.

This is an organization on it last legs, thanks to the bravery and skill of the coalition and Iraqi armies and Iraqi police. Now we need to drive a stake through its heart, killing or catching Zarqawi.