Friday, February 10, 2006

Missile Defense Looking Good

The US and its allies have little to fear from Iranian and NoKo nuclear missiles. But mainland Europe - no longer a close ally - should urgently look to its defenses.

Here's the
result of a wargame of an attack at about the level of capability the Mullahs may have in 5 years (my links):

The scenario featured a fictional enemy state called Midland, located in the Sea of Japan. Tensions in the region were high as Midland threatened South Korea and Japan, as well as the United States, with an arsenal of medium- and long-range ballistic missiles assumed to be tipped with weapons of mass destruction...Midland’s location and arsenal clearly represent North Korea.

The U.S. missile defense capabilities and assets assumed in the war game either exist today or are expected within this year.

Japan and South Korea were defended by eight Standard Missile-3 interceptors aboard
Aegis ships and 80 Patriot missiles based in South Korea and Japan and operated by U.S. and Japanese forces. The U.S. homeland was defended by 10 Ground Based Midcourse Defense System interceptors based at Fort Greely, Alaska, and Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif.

Midland was assumed to have 40 to 50 medium-range ballistic missiles, and five to seven long-range ballistic missiles. During the war game, Midland launched a total of 48 missiles, only one of which was not destroyed in flight.

The rocket that broke through the interceptor shield was a long-range missile that landed in the Aleutian Islands.

The ranges and targets are similar to an attack by the Mullahs on Israel and the US. Israel has it's own BMD, hence is even better prepared than Japan. So even when the Mullahs have matched the NoKo capability, they still won't be able to put a glove the US or Israel. Plus they'll be destroyed by a retaliatory strike.

The US GBMDS coverage will extend to Canada, plus the UK, where part of the GBMDS radar
is based.

Mainland Europe is not covered by GBMDS, and is in range of Iranian missiles. Chirac has told the Mullahs that if they attack France with nukes, France will retaliate in kind. But deterrence may not work on suicidal nutters, so the Franco/Germans should start building their own MDS ASAP.