Tuesday, September 19, 2006

How Israel May Fight Its Existential War

Earlier posts listed the biggest threats to Israel's existence, explained how its defeat would result in a second holocaust, and showed why Islam is capable of perpetrating this atrocity. This post suggests what Israel will likely do to stay relatively safe.

Timing

When Israel does fight, it'll have to move fast - Islam's friends in the MSM, EU and the UN will move very quickly to block it, using everything from sanctions to forged images to threats of force. Plus Israel can't count on a US that may be controlled by RINOs or Dems.

So, based on past conflicts, Israel will have about 10 days to destroy its enemies.

For maximum effect this attack should be a surprise, but needs to be carried out before Iran gets enough nukes to destroy Israel. That would be about 10 weapons of 200+ kiloton yield. Iran is supported by 2 unsavory nuclear powers - Russia and Pakistan - who might just give Iran the weapons.

Still, allowing for the need to test and weaponize warheads and put together enough delivery vehicles, I'd guess that Israel has about 3 years before that happens, giving it an optimal surprise window about 18-24 months out.

Preparation

Here's what Israel may do in the 18-24 months (as well as changing out its political leadership).

Public Diplomacy Prep

The primary diplomatic goal during this period is to reassure the enemy. So expect negotiations with Syria and Iran, engagement with State's latest nutty land-for-peace roadmap, maybe even the return of some territory.

The secondary goal is to set the scene. Since one objective of the planned war would be to neutralize Lebanon, expect Israel to take a public stance that acknowledges the territorial integrity of Lebanon (actually it just did this). That means the consequence of any future attacks from Lebanese territory will be an act of war by that state.

The final diplomatic goal is to declare a deterrence posture to its nuclear armed enemies - Russia, France, Iran, and Pakistan. This will define the circumstances under which Israel will launch, but be ambiguous about the size of its retaliation.

Information War Prep

Unless it decides to blow up the MSM - which it probably won't - Israel is likely to concentrate on creating noise generators for use during a quick war - false stories and images that muddy the information flow.

Military Prep

The IDF will revise its to training, tactics and equipment to enable it to execute a 10 day knockout war.

Equipment Prep

Expect the IDF to up the number of nuclear-tipped cruise missiles carried by its 3 current subs - the extra 2 German subs will arrive too late. The IDF will also increase its IRBM missile fleet - it's based in the Negev and quite vulnerable to sneak attack from Egypt or Jordan, so expect these missiles to "launch on warning". That means that they're all fired off as soon as any ground, air or space attack is detected coming their way.

A 10-day high intensity war will use lots of munitions, and Israel now knows it can't rely on the US. So it will stockpile and where that doesn't work switch to domestic production. That won't be hard - the US mostly supplies pinpoint weapons used to minimize civilian casualties, and that won't be a requirement in an existential war.

Finally, don't expect Israel to deploy the THEL laser anti-missile defense. It's expensive and depends on an embargo-prone US supplier. Instead expect it to plan on overrunning launch areas or failing that burn them off with tactical nukes.

Covert Ops Prep

The goal here would be to cut off Iranian and Russian oil revenue by interdicting their pipelines.

Pipelines are just long, flimsy and hard to defend tubes full of a highly inflammable liquid. So given the right munitions, small well trained and well-equipped teams of fighters could destroy great lengths of them.

To attack Iran's output, Israel may arm Kurdish fighters, and to attack Russia's it may do the same for the Chechen resistance - if Russia hasn't killed it off.

Alliance Prep

This would be with India, to keep Pakistan in its box. Because of the size of the Pakistani target, India needs very high yield (10+ Megaton) thermonuclear weapons, and its likely that Israel can provide the know-how for this.

The War

This will be violent, driven by the Jewish people's determination never again to walk to the gas chambers without a fight to the death. But it'll be calculated - suicide is a sin to Jews - so expect smarts rather than self-sacrifice.

Israel's war aims will likely be to knock the Iranian threat back 25 years, prevent Russia, France and Pakistan coming to its assistance, and convert the Lebanon to a friend or neutral neighbor on the model of Jordan. A 25 year breathing spell gives the technologically superior Israelis time to neutralize the eventual Iranian nukes - perhaps with space based WMD.

Expect the war to start with Israel taking exception to one of the provocations its enemies regularly provide it with.

To credibly deter Russia, Pakistan and France - who might be tempted to use nukes on Israel later in the war - Israel will probably start by demonstrating a nuclear device. To avoid early escalation, that might be an airburst over a lightly populated area. But a better option would be two EMP bursts high over Syria and Iran - that would kill nobody, cripple their militaries, and declare Israel's capabilities.

The next phase is dictated by geography - Israel needs bases close to Iran to launch its ground and air strikes, and the closest place outside of Iraq is Eastern Syria. So expect an Israeli blitz to destroy the Syrian air and rocket forces, followed by a heavy armored push to roll up its army. The Israeli Arrow BMD system will thin the number of Syrian SCUDs that get through. If Syria uses WMD, Israel will nuke the launch fields and if that doesn't stop the attacks it will nuke Syrian C&C center in Damascus.

With Syria defeated, expect a huge logistics operation to move an expeditionary force to Eastern Syria, plus cruise missile attacks on Iranian missile defense systems. If Iran responds with WMDs, expect Israel to nuke Tehran. If not, expect air, missile and commando attacks on the 40 or so Iranian nuke plants and command centers. (Note that the Israelis would need to fly over Kurdish Iraq - another reason it will help out the Iranian Kurds).

If international pressure to stop the fighting becomes unbearable, Israel will use its nuclear weapons to achieve its war aims quickly.

Aftermath

Israel's enemies (and friends) may enforce an economic embargo via the EU and UN, but Israel can moderate this by replacing lost resources from Iran. Absent sanctions, Israel will withdraw quickly from what's left of Syria and Iran.

If Lebanon is unharmed, expect it to conclude a peace treaty with the victorious Israelis, perhaps granting basing agreements in North Lebanon.

Israel will rebuild its deterrent forces and put them places the Russian and Chinese can't easily hit them.

What happens to the Palestinians depends on their behavior - if they keep up their low level violence, they'll push Israel from Retaliator into Hawk/Bully mode, and suffer the same fate as the Chechens.