Thursday, November 16, 2006

The German Death Spiral

Jihad Watch just published a piece on the German demographic collapse referenced in the previous post - here are the numbers from their source (my ellipsis).

BERLIN, Germany, November 9, 2006 ( - Germany’s downward spiral in population is no longer reversible, the country’s federal statistics office said Tuesday. The birthrate has dropped so low that immigration numbers cannot compensate.

“The fall in the population can no longer be stopped,” vice-president Walter Rademacher with the Federal Statistics Office said, reported Agence France-Presse.

Germany has the lowest birthrate in Europe, with an average of 1.36 children per woman. (Not quite true - Spain is 1.28).

Despite government incentives to encourage larger families, the population is dropping rapidly and that trend will continue, with an expected loss of as much as 12 million by 2050. That would mean about a 15 percent drop from the country’s current population of 82.4 million, the German news source Deutsche Welle reported today....

Germany has one of the largest populations of Muslim immigrants in Western Europe, with a Muslim community of over 3 million. That trend is expected to continue, leading some demographic trend-watchers to warn that the country is well on the way to becoming a Muslim state by 2050, Deutsche Welle reported.

The Brussels Journal reported last month that one third of all European children will be born to Muslim families by 2025. There are an estimated 50 million Muslims living in Europe today--that number is expected to double over the next twenty years.

This last statistic is spectacular - the EU population is currently about 460 million, so 100 million Muslims - allowing for the fall in the native population - makes Europe over 25% Islamic by 2025.

The Germans have a strong sense of national identity, and I don't see them passively accepting Sharia law, the conversion of their churches into mosques, or submitting to Iranian nuclear blackmail. So things are going to get messy.