Saturday, November 25, 2006

Waiting Out Russia

By 2050, Russia will be a mid-sized half Muslim nation with a Palestinian-quality economy. But as it disintegrates, it'll do a lot of damage - here's how we minimize it.

"We" are the Anglosphere and the old Soviet satellites - from the Baltic states through Poland and Georgia to the Caucasus. The weasels - Germany, France, Spain, some Nordics, Belgium, and maybe Italy will stay pusillanimous, so won't make it.

1. Support The Ex Soviet Satellites

NATO is led by an
idiot and a leading member gives Russian-backed Hizbollah air cover, hence NATO can't be relied upon. The US and UK need to provide bilateral security guarantees to these nations that Russia's dictators will try to re-incorporate

2. Embargo Technology Transfer

The Russian are great missile designers - I learned weapons control systems design from a Russian textbook. But their centralized society produces lousy computers and software.

When the USSR collapsed, the West relaxed its technology embargoes on Russia, enabling its designers to carry out huge upgrade to use our computer systems. For example the TORs they're installing to keep the Israelis off the Mullah's nuke plants:
The computer control of the Tor system is a giant leap for Soviet\Russian technology. The digital computers allow for a high degree of automation, similar to the US Patriot missile system. Target threat classification is automatic and the system can be operated with little input from operators required, if desired. This is one reason for the high degree of accuracy, ability to intercept small, fast and highly maneuverable targets, and the very fast reaction times of the system.
We need to turn off the faucet, fast, denying them the IT technologies they need to stay current.

The US and UK also need to impose technology embargoes on their NATO "allies" - otherwise the likes of France and Germany will keep Russia current, for money.

3. Beef Up Our Security Services

MI5 performed better than the spy-infested, politicized, CIA during the Cold War. But now MI5 is focused on Islamic terror and needs more money and people to swing its attention back to the Russians. If the CIA can be rescued, that needs more money too.

4. Switch To Nuclear Power

Nuke plants are the most secure way the UK can protect its energy supplies. It should also encourage and protect the new non-Russian oil sources and pipelines
Dick Cheney negotiated. But it can't rely rely on them - few "accidents" to these pipelines will leave the UK high and dry.

The US has plenty of indigenous oil and gas, but vested interests (beginning with the letter "D") prevent its exploitation. When oil goes through $200/barrel, voters will no doubt change the pols or their attitude.

5. Keep The UK Out Of Any EU Energy Policy

The UK is the only major gas and oil producer in the EU.

When Russia tightens its energy knot on Europe, the weasels will start howling for the Brits to "share" their energy resources, under the guise of EU solidarity. Most of those nations are doomed, and the UK must resist the impulse to throw good money after bad.

6. Rebuild Our Militaries

The UK now
spends just 2.32% of its GDP on defense, compared with the US 3.2% (even France spends 2.57%).

During the Cold War, both the US and UK were spending between 4% and 5%, and they need to return to these levels. That isn't hard - just a matter of turning pork into guns.

The money is needed for bigger missile defense systems, more space defenses, more and better planes and much bigger air-mobile armies.


Nations take a while to notice new threats - Churchill's Iron Curtain speech was a year after the Soviets turned the lights out in Eastern Europe. So none of this will happen immediately. But happen it must.