Sunday, November 12, 2006

What Now?

Emerging blinking from the technicolor autumnal Italian countryside, the new US political landscape looks bleak - here are some predictions for the next 2 years.

The Dems want to win the Presidency in 2 years and keep control of Congress. So it would be absurd for them to invite further 9/11s, tank the economy, or trigger the next MidEast war. But politics is an emotional business, the Dems have 12 years of scores to settle, and their bitter hearts will likely dominate their cool heads. With these results.

The US Will Abandon Israel

The State Department - a Dem stronghold - has nipped at Israel even when controlled by a Republican legislature and executive. With the legislature now Dem and the executive hobbled, they'll be free to be "even handed" between Israel and its intended destroyers.

That's not to say that the Dems won't talk up their support of Israel - just that their actions will undermine it.

Israel Will Fight Iran And Syria Alone

There's a chance the president can take down Iran's nukes without the consent of Congress - for example with a kinetic weapon strike. But any action requiring funding will be blocked by the Dem-controlled Armed Services Committee. That's why Rumsfeld resigned.

For now we have John Bolton and the US veto, but Olmert is visiting the President to figure out how soon Israel will be left on its own. That's without supply & resupply with US weapons, and without US top cover at the UN. My guess is the US will be tacitly hostile to Israel within 90 days. The wargame modeled here outlines a possible Israeli solution to this problem.

The US Economy Will Tank

That's because the Dems are socialists, so won't be able to stop themselves rolling back the Bush tax cuts (for the "rich"), re-imposing layers of regulation, and adding taxes to finance their social programs (which buy them votes in 2 years).

I'm guessing the effect on the dollar will be neutral - a depressed US economy will import less, so the trade deficit will narrow. That'll hurt China and the EU, so all currencies will be equally exposed.

Open Borders

The Dems will support the president's amnesty for millions of illegals and quietly bury the border fence.

Cut And Run From Iraq

The Dems say the Iraq war is wrong, so can't in conscience continue to sacrifice American lives fighting it. The appointment of Baker's protégé as SecDef confirms this intent - Baker abandoned the Iraqi Shiites and (initially) the Kurds to Saddam's killing fields after the Gulf war.

What happens then depends on Israel - if it can neuter Iran and Syria so they stop fueling the Iraq insurgents, there's a chance Iraq will survive as a democratic state. If not, Iraq will fragment into a democratic Kurdistan, and despotic Sunni and Shiite states.

New Alliances

With their big ally MIA, America's friends - Australia, Israel, Poland, Denmark, maybe the UK will look to support eachother, diplomatically and militarily.

The Good News

The US is a Christan nation of inventive hard working warriors. It survived the incompetent leadership of the 70s with its economy damaged but with its core strengths unscathed, and went on to crush its competitors (Japan, Germany) and enemy (the USSR). So, on past form it'll recover from the current setback and either defeat or reform Islam.

Meanwhile Americans like Jeff Bezos will continue to build the future (WSJ, $):
Jeff Bezos, the founder and chief executive of that he had purchased land in Culberson and Hudspeth counties, 25 miles north of this tiny West Texas town east of El Paso.

Mr. Bezos's purpose: to build a launch pad for his fledgling commercial space venture, Blue Origin LLC, which will offer suborbital trips to space...

Over the past three years, Mr. Bezos, 42 years old, has put together about 290,000 acres of land for his space project. According to a report filed with the Federal Aviation Administration, Blue Origin may start commercial operations as early as 2010, conducting about 52 launches a year from Texas.
And American volunteer warriors will still step up to fight the dragons.