Wednesday, January 31, 2007

In Their Hearts They Know They're Idiots

The Canadian Prime Minister observes, correctly, that the Kyoto treaty is a socialist scheme. And his critics confirm that global warming theory is an apocalyptic religion, not a scientific theory.

Mr Harper (via Drudge):
He says Kyoto requires that Canada make significant cuts in emissions, while countries like Russia, India and China face less of a burden.

Under Kyoto, Canada was required to reduce emissions by six per cent by 2012, while economies in transition, like Russia, were allowed to choose different base years.

"Kyoto is essentially a socialist scheme to suck money out of wealth-producing nations," Harper's letter reads.

How true, although its presented by the Canadian equivalent of the BBC as if he'd revealed a penchant for snacking on babies.

Presumably inadvertently, the piece then neatly exposes the mindset of the global warmers:
Liberal MP Mark Holland told the Canadian Press on Tuesday that the leaked letter shows that Harper isn't actually committed to climate change.
Of course one should never be "committed" to a scientific theory, since all but the most recent have been disproved, and its only a matter of time before they bite the dust.

That's because science advances through a cycle of measurement, and theorization plus prediction - as soon as the theory fails to predict correctly, it's discarded. Global Warming theory does not predict historic climate change, so as a theory at least it has ceased to be.


The author of
this book shrewdly observes that the supporters of discredited theories always try to censor discussion of alternatives; hence even Canadian Liberals know the game is up.

Monday, January 29, 2007

Bolton's Hubris and Nemesis

Saturday was the anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz, when the world observes Holocaust Memorial Day. Except, that is, for the northern Brit town of Bolton - it followed Muslim policy and opted out. This hubris will be followed by nemesis.

The Hubris


Holocaust:
The Jews of Europe were the most numerous of the victims of the Holocaust in what the Nazis called the "Final Solution of the Jewish Question"...or "the cleaning"... It is commonly stated that approximately six million Jews were murdered in the Holocaust, though estimates by historians using, among other sources, records from the Nazi regime itself, range from five million to seven million.
Brit Muslims:
The Muslim Council of Britain...currently maintains a policy of refusing to send official representatives to any of the official events associated with Holocaust Memorial Day.

In September 2005, Muslim advisers to Tony Blair suggested the event be ended and replaced with a Genocide Day, which would commemorate victims of all genocides without attributing uniqueness to the Holocaust.

The Nemesis

January 2007

Bolton axes Holocaust Memorial Service:
Widespread criticism has been levelled at Bolton Council for scrapping the town's annual Holocaust Memorial Day ceremony.

Town Hall chiefs have instead decided to hold an event as part of a genocide memorial day in June. The council says that would be more inclusive.

A poll of young Brit Muslims found (among other insanities):

Forty per cent of Muslims between the ages of 16 and 24 said they would prefer to live under sharia law in Britain, a legal system based on the teachings of the Koran. The figure among over-55s, in contrast, was only 17 per cent.

In some countries, people found guilty under sharia law face penalties such as beheading, stoning, the severing of a hand or being lashed.

January 2017

Fox News reports:

Cops Hunt Islamophobes.

British police mounted a major manhunt for hooligans who rioted in the northern town of Bolton last night. The riots caused extensive damage to many of the city's 40 mosques.

The riots followed Bolton's hosting of England's first execution under sharia law.

Following Iranian precedent, a woman was hanged from a crane on the town's Victoria Square. The 15 year old woman was convicted by a sharia court of having sex prior to marriage with a 50-year old man. Sharia courts were given authority in designated areas of England under the "Ramadan Agreement" between the Muslim Council of Britain and Prime Minister Cameron.

To preserve the privacy of the perpetrator's family and her victim, her identity cannot be revealed. However a 10 minute video of the hanging is available on Snuff Google.

Greater Manchester police have issued a Hate Speech Suppression Order to all British news media. This means that adverse reflections on these lawful events will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law under the Religious Hate Speech Act (2012).

January 2027

AP reports:

The British government reported the elimination of the North of England Caliphate, marking the "Final Clearance" of the UK.

After last week's fall of Manchester, Deportation Authority Forces subdued the neighboring town of Bolton. Armored forces backed by RAF Lightening ground support bombers, and Army attack helicopters swept through the town, engaging insurgents in the town's 60 mosques, all of which were destroyed with UAV-mounted laser cannon.

A "Churchill" mini-neutron bomb were employed to cleanse fanatics from the National Heritage listed Town Hall, which suffered little material damage to its historic fabric.

This final elimination of the caliphate and its peoples from England was welcomed by the Prime Minister as she entered Downing Street. "Rejoice, Rejoice! she cried to assembled reporters.

The Deportation Authority announced a total of 350,000 insurgents and their families have now been shipped to the Islamic Reservation in the north of the former Pakistan, and a further 75,000 were en route, escorted by 4 super carriers of the Republic of India. With the elimination of the caliphate, a further 20,000 survivors remain to be deported.

January 2037

BBC World reports:

The council of the English town of Bolton has declined to observe Caliphate Memorial Day, which marks the elimination of Islam's last bastion in the UK.

A spokesman said "Of course we regret the destruction of European Islam, and the death of 20 million Muslims. But they died in accordance with their belief in death, whereas our lads who died cleansing them wanted life. Our thoughts will be with them on Remembrance Sunday."

Saturday, January 27, 2007

Twilight Of The Vanities

Brit cops are turning into political hit men as Blair fades from power. Unless the president hangs tough, the US faces the same fate over the next two years.

Brit cops are hunting political targets, leaving the bad guys to run free.


The cops are hunting Blair by leaking fantastic tales:
Police used computer experts to obtain confidential material, and are also believed to have approached Number 10's internet suppliers to gain access to government email records.
....

The cash-for-honours investigation took another dramatic twist last night after it was alleged that detectives had uncovered a secret computer network at Downing Street from which potentially crucial emails had been deleted.
This is nonsense.

"Government email records" are highly protected. For example, all systems at Number 10 will be
TEMPEST rated, preventing external eavesdropping. Plus the emails will be encrypted and their servers heavily protected against intrusion and attack.

If the cops "computer experts" successfully hacked this system, a) they committed a criminal offense, and b) the Security Services personnel responsible for the security of government communications should be fired.

And of course if the highly compromising emails were deleted, how come the cops know they were "potentially critical"? Anyway,
this confirms it's a political hit:
Police are expected to report to the Crown Prosecution Service, which will decide if there should be any prosecution, next month. ITV News said that charges were unlikely because of the difficulties of proving any criminal intent.
Meanwhile (my emphasis):
Scotland Yard is close to submitting a report to the Crown Prosecution Service to ask it to consider whether there are grounds to extradite a Russian businessman in connection with the murder of Alexander Litvinenko, it was claimed last night...

Downing Street, fearing major damage to Anglo-Russian relations because of emerging evidence that there was a "state-related" Russian source of the polonium, is alleged by Yard insiders to have asked police to keep quiet about the inquiry.
Actually, the cops are bound in law to "keep quiet" about inquiries except in tightly controlled circumstances.

While all this is going on, the cops have left untouched Muslim preachers
who were shown on Brit TV committing serious criminal offenses.

It may not matter much if Brit cops paralyze its government, but if the same happens in the US, the world will be left to the tender mercies of the North Koreans, Chinese, Russians, and Iranians.

Incidentally, I'm not a fan of Blair - I think he's a manipulative fantasist with lousy management skills. But I am a fan of the Brit police, and detest their degradation by Blair's enemies.

Friday, January 26, 2007

Italian Lessons For Iraq

Iraq is a brave attempt to bring democracy to a brutalized people. But it seems increasingly probable it won't work, because the level of corruption and associated low social capital can't support a democracy.

These dark thoughts are occasioned by four days trying and failing to put a deal together in Italy - a nation halfway between the US and Iraq in its corruption level.


A measure of the amount of social capital - and hence trust - in a nation is its
Corruption Perceptions Index rating, which tracks corruption in public officials. Finland is least corrupt with a score of 9.6, the UK comes 11th equal with a score of 8.6, and the US is 20th equal with a score of 7.3 (I suspect dragged down by the likes of Louisiana).

Italy comes 45th, with a score of 4.9, the most corrupt of the "old" EU nations other than Greece, which scores 4.4.


Buying real estate in Italy is an agonizing process - we've had three deals fall through when the vendor upped the agreed price after he thought we were hooked. That's typical of a low trust society.


We live part of the year in another nation that scores somewhere between Italy and the US, and as
previously noted observe the people there gain social cachet from behaving dishonestly and selfishly.

Modern economies and democracies depend on contracts, both based on trust. Absent that, economic players spend a lot of their time insuring against breach, while politicians play that game for money, not vanity. So, in spite of the enormous talents of the Italian people, their economy struggles to keep up with the other EU nations, and their politics are a corrupt farce The low CPI might even explain the very low Italian birth rate - marriage is a contract!


Now consider Iraq. It has a CPI score of 1.9, making it the third most corrupt nation in the world - even the Iranian kleptocracy comes in at 2.7. If Italy struggles at 4.9, its hard to see Iraq building a modern, democratic economy at 2.7.


There's some hope - Iraq will likely hide islands of integrity, and if the US does concede defeat, perhaps those islands will survive - the Kurds for example.


But if we can't help corrupt nations to modernize, their future is bleak,

Monday, January 22, 2007

Cellphones and Security

Brit security often combines maximum inconvenience for consumers with zero added safety. X-raying babies' shoes at airports is an example - and here's another on their tracking of cellphones.

We live in three separate countries, so use SIM-free cellphones, plugging in local SIMs when we get off the plane - that saves paying over $2/minute for local calls.


Cellphones broadcast for each call a) the phone's unique ID, and b) the SIM card's unique ID. So if you have a database of phone and SIM IDs linked to the names and addresses of their owners, you track who makes calls to who, and when.


I just tried to replace my phone in the UK, and found all Brit online stores won't deliver unless you provide some mix of name, address, age, DoB and occupation. The one I chose then accessed the (I thought private) Brit Electoral Register to check if I'm registered to vote at my address & finding I wasn't demanded an identity thief's cocktail of utility bills, passports and driving licenses "to confirm my identity". This is vastly more intrusive than the credit checking imposed by the folks who sold me my ThinkPad - which costs 10 times the phone.


The SIM purchase process also requires an address - but that's not verified, so you can invent one.


So it seems the Brits track cellphone calls.


That sounds like it would help catch terrorists looking to repeat the Madrid or London bombings. But it wouldn't - any sane terrorist will buy phones anonymously from a Pakistani market stall, and UK SIMs using false addresses.


So the net is an incremental cost for non-terrorists and no security gain.


And I'm buying my SIM-free cellphone in Italy.

Blair, State Criminal (2)

Blair is finding that undermining the rule of law hurts him just as much as the Northern Irish.

There's currently a fuss about him giving Lordships etc in return for cash contributions to his Labour party. I think this is overblown - all politicians reward their supporters this way, and absent a smoking gun, it's impossible to prove linkage.

Still, Blair is now weak, so his enemies have set the cops on him, IRA style:
One of Tony Blair's most senior advisers was arrested in the cash-for-honours probe today on suspicion of perverting the course of justice and over alleged honours offences.

Ruth Turner, No 10's Director of Government Relations, was arrested at her home in London this morning. She was questioned at a London police station and bailed to return pending further inquiries.

So she was arrested without charge, questioned without charge, and had to post bail to obtain her freedom. And presumably, since she wasn't charged, she wasn't read the Brit version of her Miranda rights or allowed to call her lawyer. That's dirty pool.

Still, it'll cheer up the poor bloody Northern Irish.

The bad news is that Brits have to live with the loss of their ancient Common Law rights. As William Penn observed:

"... However, this I leave upon your Consciences, who are of the Jury (and my sole Judges) that if these Ancient Fundamental Laws, which relate to Liberty and Property, and (are not limited to particular Persuasions in Matters of Religion) must not be indispensably maintained and observed, Who can say he hath Right to the Coat upon his Back? ..."

Blair, State Criminal (1)

Tony Blair boasts of installing democracy in Northern Ireland, while handing the province to IRA criminals. Their latest coup is a hit on the cops who fought the them to a standstill.

The
Royal Ulster Constabulary (RUC):
...was the police force in Northern Ireland from 1922 to 2001. At its peak the force had around 8500 officers with a further 4500 reservists...

303 officers were killed and over 9000 were injured during the troubles (mid-1960s to late 1990s), of whom 277 were killed in attacks by the...IRA.
That's a higher casualty rate than the Brit Army in Iraq, every year for 30 years. But they died in vain - Blair folded to the IRA, abolishing the RUC and replacing it with the Police Service of Northern Ireland - dropping "Royal" to emphasize the new cops serve the Irish, not Brits.

The RUC (and Brit army) had defeated the IRA when Blair took power and folded to the terrorists. Not surprisingly, they've used his support ever since to pursue RUC cops. Here's their
latest (my ellipsis):
The Royal Ulster Constabulary Special Branch protected a paramilitary gang linked to 15 murders while members were run as police informers, a report said today.

The report published today by Nuala O’Loan, Northern Ireland’s police ombudsman, revealed the extent of police...collusion that gave (a Brit Loyalist) and his henchmen a form of immunity from the law.

Police agents with the Mount Vernon UVF were linked to 10 murders, 10 attempted murders, 13 punishment attacks, a bomb attack on Sinn Fein offices in Monaghan, drug-dealing, criminal damage, extortion and intimidation.

That sounds pretty conclusive, and you'd expect the perps to be waiting trial. Except they aren't, because (my ellipsis):

No police officers are expected to be prosecuted in connection with the report, because of a lack of evidence.
So this woman is just another IRA catspaw using Blair's cover to libel brave men and women and tarnish the memories of their 10,000 dead and wounded.

Adam Smith said "there's a lot of ruin in a nation". In destroying the rule of law, Blair has ruined the wretched Northern Irish.

Sunday, January 21, 2007

I Shot The Infidel, er, Armenian

There are two quite different accounts in the Brit quality media of the murder of a brave Turkish-Armenian - which do you believe?

London
Sunday Telegraph (my emphasis):
A prominent Turkish journalist who campaigned for Armenian rights was shot outside his office in central Istanbul by suspected Turkish nationalists yesterday, days after saying he had received anonymous death threats....

Witnesses said the assailant was a teenager wearing a white cap and jeans. "He shouted '
I shot the infidel' as he ran away," said Muharrem Gozutok, a restaurant owner.
London Sunday Times (my emphasis):
Witnesses said that as Dink, who had received numerous threats, emerged he was shot three times in the nape of the neck by a young man. His murderer fled, shouting, “I have killed an Armenian”.
The two accounts can be logically related, since Armenians are Christians, and hence - to a Muslim - infidels. But the words "Armenian" and "Infidel" must surely be quite different in Turkish, since the former describes a racial group of millions, while the latter identifies us 5 billion "kuffaars".

So either the Telegraph wants to give the impression that Turkey is infested with Muslim killers, or the Times wishes to hide that fact.

Arrest The Brit Muslim Godfathers

The trial of the July 21 London bombers began last week, and a TV documentary showed Muslim leaders committing and soliciting multiple crimes including mass murder. The cops responded with a deafening silence. That's a shame, because if this criminal incitement isn't stopped soon, Brits are ready to turn on all Muslims.

The TV is on LGF
here, and a summary here.

The program shows named Muslim leaders preaching directly, via video link, and through DVDs. The individuals committed directly, or incited others to commit, the following criminal acts:


Sedition
: The overthrow of the Brit democracy and sovereign and its replacement by an Islamic dictatorship over native Brits (the preachers call us Kuffaars).

Treason
: Praising the Taliban for killing British soldiers.

Murder
: Of apostates, homosexuals, Jews and Brits.

Sexism
: Stating that women should be treated as inferior beings.

Pedophilia
: Advocating men marry prepubescent kids.

Child abuse
: Advocating the beating of 8 year old girls who refuse to wear veils.

The crimes were committed at mosques in Birmingham, Derby, and London and
the perps were Saudi, Brit, and American. They were all named and clearly IDd, so can easily be tracked and (if in the UK) apprehended.

Tne trial of the second (failed) wave of London bombers, told us
this:
The CCTV footage showed Ramzi Mohammed, 25, wearing a rucksack and boarding the busy Northern Line Tube at Stockwell, south London. He turned his back towards a mother with a child in a pushchair before detonating his device. The detonator exploded, although the main charge, made up of liquid hydrogen peroxide and chapati flour, failed to go off.
This pervert and his fellow would-be killers were incited by the likes of the above, so it's essential Brit police arrest and charge them.

If they don't, people will deal with the problem themselves - not difficult given the Muslim custom of congregating in mosques.

Most Brit Muslims are decent people working hard to assimilate, so that would be a tragedy.

Saturday, January 20, 2007

Wayne's (and Kenneth's) World

Devotees of the ageless Yes Prime Minister will be delighted to see the State Department displaying traditional Foreign Office craftsmanship.

State (my emphasis):
US contingency planning for military action against Iran's nuclear program goes beyond limited strikes and would effectively unleash a war against the country, a former US intelligence analyst said on Friday.

"I've seen some of the planning ... You're not talking about a surgical strike," said Wayne White, who was a top Middle East analyst for the State Department's bureau of intelligence and research until March 2005.


"You're talking about a war against Iran" that likely would destabilize the Middle East for years, White told the Middle East Policy Council, a Washington think tank...
Wayne's backup filed an alternative plea (my emphasis again):
Middle East expert Kenneth Katzman argued "Iran's ascendancy is not only manageable but reversible" if one understands the Islamic republic's many vulnerabilities.

The economy is mismanaged and "quite primitive," exporting almost nothing except oil, he said.Also, Iran's oil production capacity is fast declining and in terms of conventional military power...


"Iran is a virtual non-entity," Katzman added.
No Foreign Office mandarin would ever be called Wayne, but he might be a Kenneth. And he'd never reveal military secrets in public - preferring to do so do in private (to the Russians).

Yet Wayne and Kenneth are following the playbook nicely described in the Yes Prime Minister parody of the Foreign Office "A Victory For Democracy":
Jim (Prime Minister): Apparently the White House thinks that the Foreign Office is full of pinkos and traitors.

Bernard (his Civil Service aide): Not it's not, well not full.

....

Sir Richard (Foreign Office Chief): Standard Foreign Office response in a time of crisis. In Stage One we say that nothing is going to happen.


Sir Humphrey: Stage Two, we say something may be going to happen but we should do nothing about it.


Sir Richard: Stage Three, we say that maybe we should do something about it, but there's nothing we can do.


Sir Humphrey: Stage Four, we say maybe there is something we could have done, but it's too late now.
Readers will note Wayne is arguing Stage Three - he'll switch to Stage Four after Iran nukes Israel. And, just in case, Kenneth is arguing Stage One.

All in all, a fine piece of American pinko/traitor craftsmanship.

Friday, January 19, 2007

Upcoming Chinese Turkey Shoot

The Chinese dictatorship is working to take out US surveillance satellites, no doubt to facilitate its conquest of Taiwan. That's dumb - China has little chance of suppressing US space assets, so its forces will likely star as victims in a 21st Century Marianas Turkey Shoot.

Last time:
The Battle of the Philippine Sea was an air-sea battle of the Pacific Campaign of World War II fought between the U.S.Navy and the Imperial Japanese Navy (IJN) on 19 and 20 June, 1944, off the Mariana Islands. The action was a disaster for the Japanese forces, who lost almost all of their carrier-borne aircraft and a third of the carriers involved in the battle. After the battle, the aircraft carrier force of the IJN was no longer militarily effective.
Here's why there'll be a rerun.

US Military Space Assets


These assets are highly secret - the NYT hasn't gotten to them yet - but there's a plausible description here.

US imaging satellites are essentially big Hubble telescopes facing earthwards. Others use infrared and radar. All transmit real time data back to NORAD and its backups via a separate high-bandwidth satellite network. Plus, there are the 24+ satellites in the GPS network.

There are dozens of US military satellites spread between low orbit (a few hundred miles up), and high (like the geosynchronous detectors NORAD uses to keep tabs on the antics of Santa and Dobbie).

How to Kill Satellites

Satellites are easy to track from the ground, since they move predictably, are in plain view, and can’t afford to carry much propellant to dodge about. Low orbit ones are easy to reach and hit, high orbit ones are much harder.

Assorted bad guys – including the Chinese – have been trying to blind US imaging satellites with lasers. That’s dumb, since to do damage you need a tight beam - about 1 yard diameter at the target - and the beam has to be come from precisely where the camera is looking.

To avoid his system being blinded, the satellite operator just has to image at an angle. Combined with the burnout protection satellites use to avoid damage from looking at the sun, this makes lasers a paper tiger.

Then there are really high energy beams, but nobody has gotten them to work (except possibly the US), since they need vast power to drill through a hundred miles of energy-absorbing atmosphere.

Nukes detonated in orbit work quite well, but the collateral EMP is too messy except in existential wars.

That leaves anti-satellite (ASAT) missiles with kinetic or HE warheads, and the US has had these for 20 years – the best known is air launched by an F-15.

What China Wants

To successfully invade Taiwan, China has to prevent detection of a prolonged invasion buildup (probably 500,000 troops, 500 air transports, 1000 ships, 1000 attack planes, and 1000 medium range rockets). Then, to achieve tactical surprise on D day, it has to keep the location of its ships and planes secret as they to head to Taiwan (30 hours by ship, 2 hours by transport plane).

China also has to blind US satellites that might spot its subs, so they can get close enough to knock out US carriers without starting a major war. The subs would use wake-homing torpedoes to take out the carriers' propulsion systems (without propulsion, the carriers couldn't launch their planes).

Such an attack would inflict minimal US casualties, and the Chinese dictators would reasonably calculate that the US wouldn’t escalate with 10,000 US sailors as sitting ducks.

The Chinese Plan

Hence the recent Chinese test:

A kinetic kill vehicle launched by a medium range ballistic missile destroyed an inactive Chinese weather satellite. The Chinese Feng Yun 1C (FY-1C) polar orbiting meteorological satellite had been launched in 1999. The ASAT was launched from or near the Xichang Space Center, and intercepted the target at an altitude of variously reported as either 530 or 537 miles. This altitude is consistent with the operational altitudes of American and Japanese imagery intelligence satellites.

Why It Won't Work

1. Too Many Targets


By the time China invades – probably after 2009 – there will be about 20 imaging satellites it needs to target. These will be in different orbits, and exponentially harder to kill than an old weather satellite. And if China misses just one, it gets the Turkey Shoot treatment.

2. Guaranteed Warning

By attacking US satellites, China gives excellent early warning of its intentions, enabling US carriers to fly off their planes to Taiwan..

3. Guaranteed Retaliation

The Chinese attack can’t be covert since the US imaging satellites will track the ASATs being launched from China then heading towards them – their final images will be nice pictures of Chinese kinetic warheads.

Even the UN, NYT, France, and Russia couldn’t oppose the US and its allies retaliating against such a blatant attack (just kidding).

The obvious US response would be to take down every Chinese military satellite.

It would also take down the EU’s Galileo GPS system, if it’s flying by then. This is part owned by the Chinese, and gives them GPS guidance for their missiles and bombs that’s independent of the US. Taking out half of Galileo's 30 satellites would cripple it. The Euros could hardly complain about US self-defense against such clearly documented aggression (kidding again).

3. Even If Chinese ASATs Work, Their Forces Can't Hide

Taiwan is deploying UAVs, which in an invasion can keep track of the Chinese mainland and the air and sea invasion fleets. So loss of satellite coverage isn’t a terminal failure. In fact UAVs have advantages over satellites - they're more flexible and can fly below cloud cover.

In conclusion, a Chinese communist ASAT capability won’t dent the US ability to help Taiwan defend itself.

However dictatorships are unpredictable and they might try their luck, poor fools.

Thursday, January 18, 2007

NYT 10, America 0

The administration should not have agreed to allow judges to oversee the NSA's surveillance of terrorists.

After 9/11, the NSA began to monitor calls (and other communications) between individuals in the US and known or suspected terrorists residing outside the US. In 2005, the NYT published this program's existence using information provided to it by lawbreaking insiders.


The administration argued the program was legally authorized by the president, but has now caved, to the
delight of the felons at the NYT (my ellipsis):
The Bush administration, in a surprise reversal, said on Wednesday that it had agreed to give a secret court jurisdiction over the National Security Agency's wiretapping program and would end its practice of eavesdropping without warrants on Americans suspected of ties to terrorists.

The Justice Department said it had worked out an “innovative” arrangement with the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC) that provided the “necessary speed and agility” to provide court approval to monitor international communications of people inside the United States without jeopardizing national security.

Since the surveillance program was publicly disclosed in December 2005 by The New York Times, the White House has maintained, in scores of court filings, policy papers and press statements, that the president has the inherent power to conduct wiretaps without a court warrant even though a 1978 law put intelligence surveillance under judicial review.
This has consequences.

1. Allied intelligence agencies will reduce even further the information they share with the US. With the CIA fatally compromised, the NSA has been the only reliable US touch point. Now US allies know their information will be provided to judges, who will be just as politicized as their foreign counterparts. So the faucet will be turned off.


2. The NYT will be let off the hook, so will continue to betray US secrets. Prosecutions of the people who leaked the NSA program to the NYT will now be impossible - they'll just claim they were trying to force the administration to obey the law it has now accepted.


3. Terrorist surveillance by the US will be curtailed. That's because judges hate to be rubber stamps, so the FISC will prevent or delay some wiretaps. Plus the NSA managers won't propose wiretaps they fear FISC might reject since rejection would hurt their resumes. The net is less terrorists will be tracked.


4. By caving on this national security issue, the administration is feeding the defeatist Congress. That'll encourage it to demand more appeasement.


Let's hope the administration is husbanding its strength to focus on taking out the Mullahs.

Mr Ban Goes To Washington

Like his predecessor, the new UN leader expects the US to fill his begging bowl while he insults America's elected leader.

The begging bowl:
At a Washington meeting with congressional foreign-policy and budgetary leaders...Mr. Ban asked to amend a legislation that allows Congress to approve payments of no more than 25% of the U.N. peacekeeping operations, while the United Nations assesses American dues at 27%. America pays over $1 billion for U.N. peacekeeping annually.

"There is a shortage of two percentage points, which will result in annually a $150 million or $200 million shortage of American contributions, which will, if it is accumulated, create very difficult constraints in smoothly carrying out peacekeeping operations," he told reporters yesterday.
But the issue isn't how the UN "assesses" the US contribution, but whether its peacekeepers are capable of more than raping kids and providing air cover for terrorists. And whether the UN secretariat can spend US cash honestly, given its perpetration of the biggest scam in history.

Instead of addressing these issues, Mr Ban damned the president with insincere praise:
...while visiting the White House on Tuesday, Mr. Ban called Mr. Bush a "great leader." Mr. Ban felt compelled to explain to reporters yesterday that "in diplomacy, it is appropriate to address heads of state or government with due respect and courtesy."
Ban is probably more fool than knave, but either way he can't be trusted with US tax dollars.

Wednesday, January 17, 2007

Israel Alone?

Israel is building its own defense against mortars and rockets. That's odd, since a US defense is available off-the-shelf. There may be a hidden US arms embargo here - if so, the consequences will be terrible.

Palestinians have fired over 100 Kassam rockets into Israel since their "cease fire" and Israel is developing its own defense:
The system under consideration is based on two anti- missile systems being developed by Rafael: one involving a solid laser that will have the ability to intercept Kassams in mid-air, the other a small and cheap anti-rocket missile with a kinetic warhead...

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and his cabinet...will need to allocate additional funds to the defense budget to pay for the development of the system.
The Israelis are great weapons engineers, but even they will take over a year to build and deploy a system. Waiting for a solution is odd, since a solution - as previously noted - is readily available:
The U.S. Army has seen rocket and mortar casualty rates drop “to nearly zero” where its Counter-Rocket, Artillery, Mortar Program (C-RAM) system has been deployed, says the manufacturer, and now the service plans to buy more.

On Jan. 16, Northrop Grumman’s Tactical Systems Division received a $78 million follow-on contract to continue systems engineering, integration and installation for the C-RAM program. Deployed last year in Iraq and elsewhere, the system uses sensors and radar to warn U.S. and coalition troops about incoming mortar rounds and rockets...

The C-RAM can detect a weapon firing “tens of kilometers” away, and quickly figure out where the munition will land...
C-RAM, in combination with automatic 20mm cannon, provides effective protection of Baghdad's Green Zone and other US bases.

It's possible this is just Israeli NIH, but that's unlikely - Israel has plenty of other weapons to spend its money on.

So maybe the Israeli cabinet faces a covert US arms embargo now that State is back in control. For sure the Israelis can have no confidence in Ms Rice's attempts to force them to talk to the Palestinians.

If the US has embargoed Israel, it has pretty well guaranteed that the next Mideast war will be nuclear.

Tuesday, January 16, 2007

Asymmetric Information Warfare

Our MSM uses the terrorist technique of asymmetric warfare to distort the news it presents. That could be fatal.

In asymmetric warfare, non-state actors exploit the vulnerabilities of states. Thus terrorists dressed as civilians can deploy IEDs by exploiting our desire to avoid civilian casualties. Our MSM supports this view by ignoring or minimizing the crimes of non-state actors, while howling with outrage at every supposed state infraction.

Example 1: The Head Hackers

Starting with Danny Pearl, Muslim terrorists have been recording their sawing the heads off living innocents. Our MSM have reported this in much the same way that it reports crime - a quick splash, then silence. Here's how Amnesty International supports these war criminals (my emphasis and ellipsis):
Many of these killings by armed groups, in Amnesty international’s view, constitute war crimes or crimes against humanity. As such, there is an obligation on both the Iraqi government and the international community at large to ensure that the perpetrators of these crimes are identified and brought to justice.

Without doubt, Iraqi civilians have paid a high price for getting rid of Saddam Hussain’s regime, and continue to do so.
So it's all America's fault for getting rid of the odious dictator.

When however, one such head hacker is caught, tried in an open court, found guilty, and hanged, the fact that he loses his head causes international condemnation:
Iraq's government drew worldwide condemnation yesterday when two of Saddam Hussein's closest allies were hanged, including his half-brother Barzan who was decapitated during a bungled execution....

A government video showed the blood-soaked body of Barzan Ibrahim al-Tikriti, formerly chief of Saddam's intelligence service, lying on the floor, with his severed head a few feet away.
This man was responsible for:
...summary and arbitrary executions... the use of rape as a political tool and...enforced and involuntary disappearances...public beheadings of women who were accused of being prostitutes, which took place in front of family members, including children...a campaign of extermination against the Kurdish people living in Northern Iraq (that)...resulted in the death of at least 50,000 (some reports estimate as many as 100,000 people), many of them women and children.
To her eternal shame, Condoleeza Rice complained:
"It did not reflect well on the Iraqi government that it came out that way. There was no doubt it should have been handled with dignity."
Example 2: The Traitor

Sandy Berger is a self-confessed liar and thief who stole papers from the US National Archives and destroyed them, in an apparent attempt to hide the Clinton administration's handling of al Quada:
Mr. Berger knew exactly what he was doing and knew that what he was doing was wrong. According to interviews with National Archives staff, Mr. Berger repeatedly arranged to be left alone with highly classified documents by feigning the need to make personal phone calls, and he used those moments alone with the files to stuff them in his pockets and briefcase.

...
during three of Mr. Berger's four visits to the Archives in 2002 and 2003, the former National Security Adviser did have access to original documents of which no adequate inventory existed or exists.
Only the WSJ has picked up on this, I suspect because Berger is a civilian. Unlike Lewis Libby, who after a multi-million dollar investigation into a non-crime is faces a Soviet-style show trial - there's a good summary of the players here.

It's possible Libby did mislead investigators, but since no crime was committed (the Plame woman was not covert) and Libby didn't out her (Armitage has admitted he did), then Libby did no harm.


But this case, and its consequences will likely still be running when Berger is free of his plea bargain in 2008.


So our MSM has a systemic fault, possibly because the people who work for it hate authority.

That fault may be the death of them. And us.

Italy Good, RyanAir Good, Stanstead Bad

Italy was wonderful, but the UK is feeling increasingly like a badly-run prison.

We used London's third airport (Stanstead) for the first time and found it grim. On a low traffic day with no alerts, clearing security took 35 minutes - poor signage and work flow, and 2 separate checkpoints. The second forced all passengers to remove their shoes for x-ray, causing mothers with kids a lot of hassle. In spite of this rigor, I noted three serious security vulnerabilities.

We flew Ryan Air for the first time. It's an excellent low cost airline with well trained staff that flies modern planes nicely adapted for short haul (I don't own their stock).

Italy was foggy, giving amazing views from the mountains of fog lakes, fog rivers, and fog falls. And we found a nice plot of land and - in a triumph of hope over experience - embarked on our third Italian real estate transaction (the last two aborted for highly Italian reasons).

Arriving back in Stanstead, we had to go through two passport checks - one on exit from the plane and one at immigration. Apparently illegal immigrants destroy their passports in flight, then refuse to tell immigration which plane they flew in on so they can't be deported back. That tells us Stanstead doesn't have CCTV on its gates.

Then the train link to London was down. Sigh.

Saturday, January 06, 2007

Wide Open Borders

We predicted the Dem victory would lead to open borders, and it has.
Armed men overran a National Guard observation post along the U.S.-Mexico border in Arizona this week, forcing the soldiers to retreat and prompting an investigation by the U.S. Border Patrol that has focused on the intruders' identity.

No shots were exchanged and no one was injured in the incident, which occurred shortly after 11 p.m. on Wednesday. The National Guard troops were members of an entry-identification team, assigned to monitor major illegal-alien and drug-smuggling corridors.

After forcing the soldiers to flee, the unidentified men retreated into Mexico.

National Guard Sgt. Edward Balaban said the troops did not know how many men were involved in the attack "because obviously it took place in the dark."

Several Border Patrol agents in the area told The Washington Times yesterday the armed men might have been trying to find out what the Guard troops would do if they were confronted by drug or alien smugglers. They said the increased presence of troops and additional Border Patrol agents in recent months had frustrated many of the area's drug and alien smugglers.

"I guess they got their answer," said one veteran agent. "When in doubt, the troops will run."
Someone decided to deploy a National Guard surveillance team at night without night vision equipment, and unarmed and unprotected in an area full of armed lawbreakers.

Such deliberate sabotage is typical of what happens during a management reorg - bureaucrats anticipate future policies.


Now watch the bureaucrats take down the Minutemen.

EU Flight Horrors

The new EU cabin baggage regulations mean you can't carry a laptop plus 4 days clothing. That's a shame, because it invalidates the EU's only decent idea - a single market of 27 nations.

The EU just cut the IATA cabin allowance of 22" x 18" x 10" to 21.6" x 15.7" x 7.9". Tomorrow we're flying from London (where they'll be anal about this limit) to Italy (where they won't, but they'll pinch checked bags).


So instead of blogging, I just spent an hour proving you can't fit a laptop plus 4 days clothing into an EUbag. That means the road warriors who keep the US economy humming can't operate in the EU - another reason its economy is in the tank.


These regulations happen because all EU nations are modified monarchies, so the ruling elites don't share the experiences of their subjects. In comparison the US Senate and the TSA are benign.


Anyway, the laptop has to be left behind, so no blogging for a week.

Keep It Up, Mr Moon!

The new UN Secretary General, Ban Ki Moon, is changing his team to bring it closer to the average UN member - Syria.

Here's his new number 2:
The new head of the United Nations picked the Tanzanian Foreign Minister as the first woman deputy yesterday, an appointment widely regarded as a blow to flagging hopes for reform of the organisation.
It's a blow because Tanzania is - to put it politely - a corrupt dump.


- It's as
corrupt as Syria - CPI 2.9 (a tad worse than the average corruption level of all UN members).

- It's
rated Partly Free - same as Venezuela (and about 60 other UN members).

Still, at least she's educated:
Her background is in law; she gained a PhD from the University of Konstanz in Germany in 1992.

In 1990 she wrote a paper on Tanzanian politics, entitled
The Dynamics of Election Organization in a One-Party Democracy.
That must have been quite a paper!

The good news is that an even more corrupt and incompetent UN will be a less effective anti-US and anti-Israel platform for France, Russia and China.

The bad news is the little kids will continue to be raped by the UN's "peacekeepers".

Friday, January 05, 2007

Crunchy Frogs

Blair's legions of bureaucrats armed with EU laws have turned England into a Monty Python skit .

Police have refused to release photographs of two escaped murderers, claiming it might breach their human rights. Killers Jason Croft and Michael Nixon are among 13 inmates to have absconded from Sudbury open jail in Derbyshire in the past two months.

A spokesman for Derbyshire Police said: "When making a decision to release any photograph, police forces must take into account numerous factors including the public interest test, whether there is a strong local policing purpose and, of course, the Human Rights and Data Protection Acts.

"Photographs of named people that are in police possession are classed as data and their release is restricted by law.

"Acpo (Association of Chief Police Officers) guidance states that releasing a 'wanted' photograph of a named person should only happen in exceptional circumstances where officers believe that the named suspect may be a danger to the public."

"Unfortunately, once people abscond, it's up to us to trace their whereabouts," the spokesman added.

The spokesman is clearly Superintendent Parrot:

We use only the finest baby frogs, dew-picked and flown from Iraq, cleansed in the finest quality spring water, lightly killed, and then sealed in a succulent Swiss quintuple smooth treble cream milk chocolate envelope, and lovingly frosted with glucose.
We must hope the escapees are allowed to continue with their light killing unmolested, enabling Superintendent P to get back to his speed cameras.

Thursday, January 04, 2007

Privatize Space!

Competition between privately funded space launchers is set to produce winners that are much better than any single NASA solution. We should use the same approach to building the moon colony.

Bert Rutan's sub-orbital SpaceShip Two is planned to start carrying Virgin Galactic passengers next year, while Geoff Bezos' Blue Origin vehicle may be available commercially in 2010. They're quite different designs - one is an air launched like the Bell X1, while the other is a ground-launched vehicle straight out of 1950s SciFi magazine.

Plus there are another 10 private space programs, using yet more design approaches and technologies. Engineering is like any other human endeavor - competition and diversity yield the best solution. So we can be confident that low cost sub-orbital and orbital launchers are just around the corner.

Meanwhile NASA is planning a permanent moon base by 2024, so here's an excellent suggestion from the WSJ ($): S
Say NASA believes it can build a permanent moonbase for $100 billion in today's dollars. Why not take half of that and offer it as a bounty to the first private company to build the station and man it.

A prize in the neighborhood of $50 billion is bound to attract plenty of interest -- and that number is probably much less than a realistic guess of what it would cost NASA in the end. The taxpayer would save 50% of NASA's cost to build the base, and the result would be much more likely to be attractive to the private interests that NASA wants to draw to the project.

It's an open question whether a moon base is most valuable for mining, tourism, science or some combination of the three. A private competition along the lines of the Ansari X prize for private space travel would have the added benefit of helping to sort those questions out without prejudging the outcome. So back to the moon. But let private speculators figure out the best way to get it done.

A commercially viable and permanent moon base would be an historic step in humanity's development, and would underpin US strength. So I hope the president can devote time and energy to getting the moon base done right - if nothing else, having the first off-planet human settlement named after him would be a splendid legacy!

Wednesday, January 03, 2007

Time To Fight Or Retreat

Iran is directing and feeding the destruction of the struggling Iraqi democracy. That leaves the US two choices - attack Iran or retreat. History suggests the former will be most conducive to a peaceful world, and president should act soon.

A report says the Mullahs are supporting both Sunni and Shiite terrorists in Iraq.
Iran is supporting both Sunni and Shiite terrorists in the Iraqi civil war, according to secret Iranian documents captured by Americans in Iraq.

An American intelligence official said the new material, which has been authenticated within the intelligence community, confirms "that Iran is working closely with both the Shiite militias and Sunni Jihadist groups."

...Another American official who has seen the summaries of the reporting affiliated with the arrests said it comprised a "smoking gun." "We found plans for attacks, phone numbers affiliated with Sunni bad guys, a lot of things that filled in the blanks on what these guys are up to," the official said.

Iran can do this because the US has left it untouched.

Granting aggressor nations safe haven status has been the pattern since WW2:

- In Korea, we faced the Chinese Red Army which operated from safe bases in China.

- In Vietnam, the Communist North waged unrestricted war on the South without paying any penalty until the very end, when the US trashed them in 12 days with Linebacker II.

- We stopped the Guld War after we'd chased Saddam out of Kuwait.

None of these wars produced a satisfactory result - North Korea is set start the next nuclear war, Vietnam is still a basket case after its talented people fled (or died in the attempt), Saddam killed a million people and almost perfected nuclear weapons after the Gulf War.

In all probability, when the US leaves Iraq, there will be a bloody war in which the Turks suppress the Kurds, the Shiites slaughter the Sunnis, and Iran takes the remains of Iraq. Thus enriched, it will be better able to nuke the Israelis.

Conversely, wars we have faught to the finish have stayed won - Germany and Japan now don't fight. This is probably because we defeated both nations in detail.

The peoples of China, North Vietnam, and Gulf War Iraq paid no price for the aggression of their leaders. Indeed, the current problems in Iraq stem from the successful efforts of the US military to defeat Saddam with minimal enemy causalities and theatrical "Shock and Awe".

It follows that successful wars can't be fought with half measures - you either destroy the enemy in detail, or - EU style - you don't fight.

It's easily within the power of the US to take down Iran - an extended Linebacker II-style assault would destroy over 90% of the following Iranian assets in a few weeks of air, missile and special forces attacks:
- air defense system: radars, planes, missiles
- air offense assets: ballistic missiles, bombers, helos
- nuclear infrastructure
- power plants
- ground forces: C&C and bases
- ports
- oil extraction, distribution and storage
- transportation hubs: airports, ports.

Most of these facilities are reasonably remote, highly visible, and can be destroyed - using modern weapons - with less civilian casualties than Linebacker II inflicted (about 1,600).


Taking out Iran as an oil supplier would cause a big spike in oil prices, but that would only speed up our move away form dependence on Mideast and Russian oil.

Of course such an attack would be political suicide for the president, but he's gone in 2 years anyway and surely doesn't want his legacy to be the enslavement of the Iraqi people liberated at such cost in US blood and treasure.

So this is a no-brainer. Provided, that is, the Dems can't or won't shut the operation down. If they're smart, they won't - even blue staters don't like losing wars.

Tuesday, January 02, 2007

Pelosi Should Scrap The TSA

Travelers (other then terrorists) see the US Transportation Security Agency (TSA) as an omnipotent Big Brother. In reality it's closer to the Keystone Cops and has achieved a reduction in travel by innocent folks without improving US security. If the Dems shut the ramshackle mess down, they'll sweep the board in 2008.

A
Brit view:
Britons flying to America could have their credit card and email accounts inspected by the United States authorities following a deal struck by Brussels and Washington.

By using a credit card to book a flight, passengers face having other transactions on the card inspected by the American authorities. Providing an email address to an airline could also lead to scrutiny of other messages sent or received on that account...

Much of it is routine but some elements will prove more contentious, such as a passenger's email address, whether they have a previous history of not turning up for flights and any religious dietary requirements.

Initially, such material could be inspected for seven days but a reduced number of US officials could view it for three and a half years. Should any record be inspected during this period, the file could remain open for eight years.

This is worthless - any self-respecting terrorist will pay in cash, take the standard meal, and use a throwaway email account. Innocent fliers will do the same if they distrust the TSA's ability to protect their personal data. And some will no longer fly as the risks and inconveniences of travel exceed their personal thresholds.

To match its incompetence in tracking visitors, the TSA has given up tracking departures (hat tip Bruce Schneier):

WASHINGTON, Dec. 14 — In a major blow to the Bush administration’s efforts to secure borders, domestic security officials have for now given up on plans to develop a facial or fingerprint recognition system to determine whether a vast majority of foreign visitors leave the country, officials say.

Domestic security officials had described the system, known as U.S. Visit, as critical to security and important in efforts to curb illegal immigration. Similarly, one-third of the overall total of illegal immigrants are believed to have overstayed their visas, a Congressional report says.

Tracking visitors took on particular urgency after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, when it became clear that some of the hijackers had remained in the country after their visas had expired.

But in recent days, officials at the Homeland Security Department have conceded that they lack the financing and technology to meet their deadline to have exit-monitoring systems at the 50 busiest land border crossings by next December. A vast majority of foreign visitors enter and exit by land from Mexico and Canada, and the policy shift means that officials will remain unable to track the departures.
Domestically, the TSA adds cost and harassment to every domestic flier. A current example is its plan to test an X-ray machine at Phoenix that shows passengers effectively naked. Last year the Brits tried it out at Heathrow Terminal 4 but have abandoned it - I suspect because they'd never get a Muslim woman (or Muslim man dressed as a woman) to submit to it, and that made it rather pointless. In spite of which the TSA is pressing ahead with its usual incompetence (my ellipsis):

PHOENIX — A test of an X-ray security scanner that can see through clothing and take clear pictures of the human body along with concealed weapons, has been delayed until early this coming year at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport.

Critics say the high-resolution images are too invasive, and the (ACLU) has called it a virtual strip search...

The (TSA) initially said one machine would be operating at Sky Harbor's Terminal 4 by Christmas. However, the agency said technical difficulties were creating problems in setting up the equipment so it work properly with the airport's wireless connections.

It also decided the holiday season was not a good time to start. "The last thing we wanted to do was start this during one of the busiest travel times of the year," said Nico Melendez, an agency spokesman...

The TSA says it has found a way to adjust the machine's images so the normally graphic pictures can be blurred in certain areas while still being effective at detecting threats.

So terrorists will simply hide weapons in their "certain areas".

The TSA is failing not just because it's run by incompetents, but because it's been chartered to do the impossible, providing an impermeable barrier protecting all US air travel. But Games Theory tells us that can't be done, because the number of possible targets is enormous, and all screening is porous and limited by economic costs.

Instead, threats are best contained by focusing on the relatively small number of potential attackers - that's how our intelligence agencies work.

The TSA is a great target for the Dems - it's widely detested by US travelers, foreign visitors, and people whose livelihoods depend on visitors. It annoys the ACLU, it'll drive CAIR crazy when it images Muslim women naked, and most non-Muslim women will be equally unhappy.

Ms Pelosi would be smart to take it out.

Monday, January 01, 2007

Energy Independence Starts Now

An interesting piece in OpinionJournal says that until now the big barrier to dumping the Saudis and the other crackpot oil producers is...the Saudis. The good news is they've lost their leverage, and 2007 should see big moves to regain our independence.

Investors are wary of oil substitution because they're:
...driven by memories of the mid-'80s and the late '90s when sharp drops in oil prices, driven in part by increased production from Saudi reserves...bankrupted such undertakings as the Synfuels Corporation.

(But now)...Indian and Chinese demand and peaking oil production may make it much harder for OPEC today to use any excess production capacity to drive prices down and destroy competitive technology.
The new technologies are the best kind of engineering - incremental.

Cheap Ethanol

Ethanol's appeal rose a few years ago when it became clear that genetically modified biocatalysts could break down the cellulose in biomass and thus enable ethanol's production from a wide range of plant life...

...two years ago the National Energy Policy Commission...estimated that just 7% of U.S. farmland (the amount now in the Soil Bank) could produce enough biomass to provide half the fuel needed by U.S. passenger vehicles, and that production costs for cellulosic ethanol were headed downward toward around 70 cents per gallon.
Still, Ethanol needs a lot of new plant, whereas the next technology needs none!

Plug-In Hybrids

If hybrid gasoline-electric cars are provided with advanced batteries (GM's announcement said its choice would be lithium-ion) having improved energy and power density--variants of the ones in our computers and cell phones--dozens of vehicle prototypes are now demonstrating that these "plug-in hybrids" can more than double hybrids' overall (gasoline) mileage.

With a plug-in, charging your car overnight from an ordinary 110-volt socket in your garage lets you drive 20 miles or more on the electricity stored in the topped-up battery before the car lapses into its normal hybrid mode. If you forget to charge or exceed 20 miles, no problem, you then just have a regular hybrid with the insurance of liquid fuel in the tank. And during those 20 all-electric miles you will be driving at a cost of between a penny and three cents a mile instead of the current 10-cent-a-mile cost of gasoline.

Utilities are rapidly becoming quite interested in plug-ins because of the substantial benefit to them of being able to sell off-peak power at night. Because off-peak nighttime charging uses unutilized capacity, DOE's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory estimates that adopting plug-ins will not create a need for new base load electricity generation plants until plug-ins constitute over 84% of the country's 220 million passenger vehicles.

Further, those plug-ins that are left connected to an electrical socket after being fully charged (most U.S. cars are parked over 20 hours a day) can substitute for expensive natural gas by providing electricity from their batteries back to the grid: "spinning" reserves to help deal with power outages and regulation of the grid's voltage and amperage.
That last feature is very neat, since it solves the problem of storing electricity (currently only possible on a large scale with two-way hydroelectric). That might make wind power viable. Because wind is unpredictable and only available about 30% of the time, all wind capacity needs an equivalent quick-reacting conventional generator to back it up so wind actually adds to capital costs. But plug-ins reduce the need for such wind backup.

Plug-ins work fine with our existing generating capacity - all we have to do is replace old plants with nukes when they come to be retired.


So there's a good prospect that, in 10 years time, our dependence on Mideast despots will be a distant memory. As will Europe's dependence on the Russians, so if you're building plug-ins, you might want to install
Polonium 210 detectors...

Call Al Nino!

A Brit newspaper says 2007 will be the hottest year on record. The same paper told us Israel used nukes in Lebanon - so prepare for an arctic year.

Back in October, the London Independent's reporter Robert Fisk said Israel used:
...some novel small experimental nuclear fission device or other experimental weapon...or...a bunker-busting conventional uranium penetrator weapon employing enriched uranium rather than depleted uranium.
Now the same paper tells us:
A combination of global warming and the El Niño weather system is set to make 2007 the warmest year on record with far-reaching consequences for the planet, one of Britain's leading climate experts has warned.
As we've come to expect from this organ, the article then debunks itself (my emphasis):
The cause of the phenomenon is not fully understood but in an El Niño "event" the pool of warm surface water is forced eastwards by the loss of the westerly trade winds...

The co-relation with global warming is as yet unclear. Archaeological evidence shows El Niños and La Niñas have been occurring for 15,000 years. But scientists are investigating whether climate change is leading to an increase in their intensity or duration.
If the "leading scientists" and Independent don't understand the one copper-bottomed 15,000 year-old climate change mechanism, their predictions are fantasies, not science.

The Independent would do better calling the guy who fixed the last El Nino (my ellipsis):
(March 1998)...a retired naval pilot from Nipomo in California is being accused of the greatest feat of global manipulation ever. And all because his name is Al Nino.

...Alphonso Nino, to give him his correct first name, has been deluged with telephone calls accusing him of being the cause of all the climatic trouble.

Mr Nino has taken a diplomatic approach to the public vitriol against him and says he tries to deal with the calls with good humour.

"Some of them absolutely curse me out and others just ask me, in a rather grudged way if I can just stop the rain." "I told one man who'd called me to ask me to stop the rain, that I'd stop it for him. He called me three days later to thank me for making the rain stop."

Mr Nino is listed in the phone book as, Nino, Al, (he's the only Nino in the book) but he says he won't change his listing to stop the calls. "I've rather enjoyed it, I'm thick skinned ... I'm an old Navy man so I like to trade barbs with the people that call."